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A common misconception is that an event contract is simply a wager with financial language wrapped around it. That view misses the central feature of a prediction market: the contract is designed to translate a clearly defined future outcome into a tradable price. In the United States, that distinction matters because regulated markets, settlement rules,… Continue reading Event Contracts Are Not Ordinary Bets: How Prediction Markets Work in the United States

A common misconception is that an event contract is simply a wager with financial language wrapped around it. That view misses the central feature of a prediction market: the contract is designed to translate a clearly defined future outcome into a tradable price. In the United States, that distinction matters because regulated markets, settlement rules,… Continue reading Event Contracts Are Not Ordinary Bets: How Prediction Markets Work in the United States

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